Geopolitical analysis is an essential piece of investment management that many firms currently neglect. We think markets are not fairly pricing the level of current and potential global geopolitical risk due to distortions such as central bank liquidity. Another explanation for the recent complacency toward geopolitical risk is the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has distorted capital flows into equities. However, recent price action of political risk-off assets including gold, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the “Defence” Index (Dow Jones US Select Aerospace & Defence Index) is becoming more acute in response to the most recent geopolitical events. In short, geopolitical risk is starting to get noticed, and we believe active equity asset managers are well positioned to capture the benefits and avoid the pitfalls.
Jim Lydotes – portfolio manager and Richard Bullock – senior analyst. Mellon