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63% of the world’s skyscrapers are in Asia.1

Truth or tall story?

By 2036 emerging markets will order more than half of all new aircraft.2

Flight of fancy? Or hard fact?

The percentage over 65s in emerging markets will double by 2050.3

Lie? Damn lie? Statistic?

A third of global unicorns are found in India and China.4

Myth or reality?

80% of the world’s middle class will live in emerging markets by 2030.5

Blatant lie? Or home truth?

China has 40% of the world’s artificial intelligence engineers.6

Science fiction? Or fact?

Agents of Change: Investing in tomorrow's world

From smartphones to artificial intelligence, ‘next generation’ cities to electric vehicles we live in an age where the almost magical science fiction tropes of yesteryear have become today’s science fact. Meanwhile, deep social and demographic change continues to both buffet and boost markets. Now, more than ever, we need to grapple with these trends to understand their power to reshape lives. Here, experts from across BNY Mellon look to the future and give their views on how the coming Agents of Change could affect markets and the investment landscape in the years to come.

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

What country is expected to be the top beneficiary of AI?

China with 26% boost to GDP by 2030. North America comes second with 14.5%.7

CONSUMER

What is the expected portion of global middle class living in Asia by 2030 ?

By 2030, two third of the global middle class will be living in Asia.8

HEALTHCARE

What is the expected growth (in %) in the number of diabetics in India by 2040?

+78%. The number of diabetics in India is expected to grow from 69 million in 2015 to 123 million by 2040.9

MOBILITY

What is the annual cost of congestion in the U.S.?

USD 160 billion – this includes 7 billion hours of time lost to sitting in traffic and an extra 3 billion gallons of fuel burned.10

SMARTPHONES

What are the top 3 countries by average time spent on apps?

1: Indonesia (240 min); 2: Brasil (190 min); 3: Mexico (190 min)11

TRADE

What could be the impact of a full-blown global trade war on global GDP?

According to Bank of England, a full-blown global trade war could end up hitting global GDP by 2.5 % over 3 years.12

INFRASTRUCTURE

What % of treated water is lost due to lack of infrastructure renewal in the US?

The US loses about 2.1 trillion gallons, or approximately 16% of treated water, from leaky pipes annually.13

Latest trends

Sources:
1 www.rt.com – “Race to the clouds: Asia home to two-thirds of world’s skyscrapers” – 2 May 2018
2 Boeing – Current market outlook 2017-2036
3 UN World Population Prospects 2017
4 Techcrunch as at 25th September 2017
5 Roland Berger, McKinsey as at January 2013.
6 Techcrunch as at 25th September 2017
7 What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise?

8 www.hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/pr6-rbapregional-eastasia-2013hdr-eng.pdf
9 BMI and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF)
10 MIT – How ride-sharing can improve traffic, save money, and help the environment, 4 January 2017
11 Business Insider – January 2018
12 The independent : “What will the impact of ‘the largest trade war in economic history’ be?” – 6 July 2018
13 As Infrastructure Crumbles, Trillions of Gallons of Water Lost, NPR, October 29, 2014